Nigeria’s aviation sector is facing intensifying pressure as rising aviation fuel cost continues to squeeze airline operations and push ticket prices beyond the reach of many travellers. Stakeholders across the industry warn that unless systemic issues are addressed, the sector risks long-term instability and reduced accessibility. Meanwhile, concerns are mounting that the current structure of airline operations in Nigeria is no longer sustainable. Industry voices point to fuel pricing, foreign exchange volatility, and policy gaps as the core drivers of the crisis. Stakeholders Blame High Aviation Fuel Cost for Soaring Airfares An industry stakeholder, who preferred anonymity, stressed that the real issue lies in the cost of operations rather than pricing strategies. He argued that efforts should focus on reducing the aviation fuel cost, which remains the single largest expense for airlines. “What I think we should be fighting for is the cost of operation in Nigeria. I still can’t understand why the federal government cannot bring down the cost of jet fuel,” the stakeholder said. He further criticised regulatory policies, noting that government actions often place additional burdens on local carriers. According to him, “the federal government of Nigeria are one of the major factors contributing to the failure of our local airline operators.” This perspective reflects growing frustration within the sector, where operators are increasingly constrained by cost pressures beyond their control. Government Priorities Questioned Amid Rising Industry Costs Aviation analyst and one time Rector, Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), Captain Samuel Caulcrick offered a more structured assessment, linking the crisis to broader economic priorities. He argued that aviation is not treated as a critical sector deserving strategic protection. The government does not consider commercial aviation critical enough to Nigeria’s development to consider hedging against high aviation fuel costs, he said. According to him, fuel prices, currently above ₦1,835 per litre( now over ₦2200), have created severe operational challenges. He explained that aviation fuel cost now accounts for over 40 percent of airline operating expenses, a figure that continues to rise. In addition, he noted that the weakness of the naira compounds the problem, as most aviation-related costs are dollar-denominated. As a result, airlines are left to absorb significant financial risks without meaningful policy support. Fuel Now Exceeds 50 Percent of Airline Operating Costs Chief Executive Officer Ibom Air, George Uriesi, highlighted a worsened situation beyond earlier estimates. He stressed that earlier estimates may already be outdated. That was before now. It’s gone to over 50%. And that’s just the leading indicator. Everything else usually follows suit, he said. His remarks highlight a critical trend within the industry, where fuel costs not only dominate expenditure but also trigger increases in other operational areas. Consequently, airlines face a cascading effect of rising expenses that further erodes profitability. Oil Sector Inefficiencies Driving Aviation Fuel Cost Surge Another stakeholder pointed to structural inefficiencies in Nigeria’s oil sector as a root cause of the crisis. Despite being a major oil-producing nation, the country still relies heavily on imported refined products. “With over 50% of operating cost for aviation fuel, I wonder what magic can be performed to bring down the cost of tickets,” the stakeholder said. He criticised the country’s dependence on limited refining capacity, including reliance on facilities such as Dangote Refinery and imports, noting that this situation drives up fuel prices across sectors. “The Federal Government needs to have a holistic sweep of the oil sector because their inefficiency is affecting all aspects of our lives,” he added. The stakeholder warned that if current trends persist, air travel could become entirely unaffordable, forcing airlines to scale down or cease operations altogether. Where Your ₦120,000 Ticket Actually Goes A detailed analysis by aviation consultant and expert Gbenga Onitilo provides deeper insight into the financial realities facing airlines. According to him, the perceived high cost of tickets does not reflect actual airline earnings. “In Nigeria’s domestic aviation market, the headline fare is an illusion,” he stated. On average, a one-way ticket priced at ₦120,000 is significantly reduced by statutory deductions, including regulatory charges, passenger service fees, and navigation costs. These deductions can amount to between ₦25,000 and ₦35,000 per ticket. After accounting for distribution costs such as commissions and booking systems, the airline’s net revenue typically falls to between ₦80,000 and ₦95,000. Aviation Fuel Cost Dominates Airline Expense Structure From this reduced revenue base, airlines must cover a wide range of operational expenses. According to Onitilo, fuel alone consumes between ₦40,000 and ₦50,000 per seat, making it the most significant cost component. Other expenses include aircraft leasing, maintenance, crew salaries, airport charges, ground handling, and distribution costs. When combined, these bring the total cost per seat to between ₦77,000 and ₦107,000. This leaves airlines with extremely narrow profit margins, often ranging from ₦5,000 to ₦15,000 per passenger under optimal conditions.
